Using neural networks to forecast box office success

Mike Henry, Ramesh Sharda, Dursun Delen

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Predicting box office receipts of a particular movie has intrigued many researchers, domain experts and industry leaders as a challenging problem. In this paper, we report on the current status of a prediction system being built at the Institute for Research in Information Systems (IRIS) at Oklahoma State University since 1998. In our model, the forecasting problem is converted into a classification problem, that is, rather than forecasting the pinpoint estimate of box office receipts, a movie is classified into one of nine financial success categories, ranging from a "flop" to a "blockbuster." The prediction results of different datasets representing different time windows and different combination of predictors are presented using average percent hit rate of bingo and oneaway predictions. In the latest tests the prediction results of artificial neural networks improved to almost 50% on "bingo" and close to 90% on "one-away".

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAssociation for Information Systems - 13th Americas Conference on Information Systems, AMCIS 2007
Subtitle of host publicationReaching New Heights
Pages1589-1597
Number of pages9
StatePublished - 1 Dec 2007
Externally publishedYes
Event13th Americas Conference on Information Systems, AMCIS 2007 - Keystone, CO, United States
Duration: 10 Aug 200712 Aug 2007

Publication series

NameAssociation for Information Systems - 13th Americas Conference on Information Systems, AMCIS 2007: Reaching New Heights
Volume3

Conference

Conference13th Americas Conference on Information Systems, AMCIS 2007
CountryUnited States
CityKeystone, CO
Period10/08/0712/08/07

Keywords

  • Box-office receipts
  • Classification
  • Data mining
  • Forecasting
  • Motion pictures
  • Neural networks
  • Performance measures
  • Prediction

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  • Cite this

    Henry, M., Sharda, R., & Delen, D. (2007). Using neural networks to forecast box office success. In Association for Information Systems - 13th Americas Conference on Information Systems, AMCIS 2007: Reaching New Heights (pp. 1589-1597). (Association for Information Systems - 13th Americas Conference on Information Systems, AMCIS 2007: Reaching New Heights; Vol. 3).