Predicting and explaining inflammation in Crohn’s disease patients using predictive analytics methods and electronic medical record data

Bhargava K. Reddy, Dursun Delen, Rupesh K. Agrawal

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

6 Scopus citations

Abstract

Crohn’s disease is among the chronic inflammatory bowel diseases that impact the gastrointestinal tract. Understanding and predicting the severity of inflammation in real-time settings is critical to disease management. Extant literature has primarily focused on studies that are conducted in clinical trial settings to investigate the impact of a drug treatment on the remission status of the disease. This research proposes an analytics methodology where three different types of prediction models are developed to predict and to explain the severity of inflammation in patients diagnosed with Crohn’s disease. The results show that machine-learning-based analytic methods such as gradient boosting machines can predict the inflammation severity with a very high accuracy (area under the curve = 92.82%), followed by regularized regression and logistic regression. According to the findings, a combination of baseline laboratory parameters, patient demographic characteristics, and disease location are among the strongest predictors of inflammation severity in Crohn’s disease patients.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1201-1218
Number of pages18
JournalHealth Informatics Journal
Volume25
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Dec 2019
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • C-reactive protein
  • Crohn’s disease
  • data mining
  • electronic medical records
  • gradient boosting machine
  • logistic regression
  • machine learning
  • predictive analytics
  • regularized regression

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