Modelling opportunity: An examination of quadratic effects of adolescent Venezuelan substance use

Julie Croff, Isaac J. Washburn, Ronald B. Cox, Chao Liu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Introduction and Aims: Numerous studies have found a linear relationship between an exposure opportunity and age of first drug use. This study further tests this relationship by exploring whether a quadratic exposure opportunity best fits the data on age of first use and whether gender moderates this relationship. That is, is there a peak age in which the transition to use occurs for male compared to female adolescents?. Design and Methods: A sample of 1716 adolescents from 14 public and private schools, representative of two school districts in Caracas, Venezuela, was examined using a zero-inflated Poisson modelling approach to test for quadratic effects. A series of models were tested for each set of substances (alcohol, tobacco and other drugs) to assess whether a quadratic model has better predictive ability than linear models and to test whether gender moderates the quadratic relationship. Results: After controlling for common covariates, the quadratic models for alcohol indicated the peak age of transition from an exposure opportunity to use was 10-years of age in this Venezuelan sample. Gender did not moderate these models suggesting an important move toward gender equality in substance use. Discussion and Conclusions: Focused efforts on preventing exposure to alcohol use during these windows of rapid transition is likely to have the greatest impact on delaying age of onset, which will reduce the overall prevalence of alcohol related problems among adolescents.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)865-873
Number of pages9
JournalDrug and Alcohol Review
Volume37
Issue number7
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Nov 2018

Fingerprint

Alcohols
adolescent
examination
alcohol
gender
Venezuela
Age of Onset
Pharmaceutical Preparations
Tobacco
Linear Models
female adolescent
private school
linear model
nicotine
drug use
equality
district
drug
ability
school

Keywords

  • Venezuela
  • adolescent
  • alcohol consumption
  • illicit drugs
  • smoking

Cite this

Croff, Julie ; Washburn, Isaac J. ; Cox, Ronald B. ; Liu, Chao. / Modelling opportunity : An examination of quadratic effects of adolescent Venezuelan substance use. In: Drug and Alcohol Review. 2018 ; Vol. 37, No. 7. pp. 865-873.
@article{1cf0591cc5094644977fba32ad6ebb53,
title = "Modelling opportunity: An examination of quadratic effects of adolescent Venezuelan substance use",
abstract = "Introduction and Aims: Numerous studies have found a linear relationship between an exposure opportunity and age of first drug use. This study further tests this relationship by exploring whether a quadratic exposure opportunity best fits the data on age of first use and whether gender moderates this relationship. That is, is there a peak age in which the transition to use occurs for male compared to female adolescents?. Design and Methods: A sample of 1716 adolescents from 14 public and private schools, representative of two school districts in Caracas, Venezuela, was examined using a zero-inflated Poisson modelling approach to test for quadratic effects. A series of models were tested for each set of substances (alcohol, tobacco and other drugs) to assess whether a quadratic model has better predictive ability than linear models and to test whether gender moderates the quadratic relationship. Results: After controlling for common covariates, the quadratic models for alcohol indicated the peak age of transition from an exposure opportunity to use was 10-years of age in this Venezuelan sample. Gender did not moderate these models suggesting an important move toward gender equality in substance use. Discussion and Conclusions: Focused efforts on preventing exposure to alcohol use during these windows of rapid transition is likely to have the greatest impact on delaying age of onset, which will reduce the overall prevalence of alcohol related problems among adolescents.",
keywords = "Venezuela, adolescent, alcohol consumption, illicit drugs, smoking",
author = "Julie Croff and Washburn, {Isaac J.} and Cox, {Ronald B.} and Chao Liu",
year = "2018",
month = "11",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1111/dar.12856",
language = "English",
volume = "37",
pages = "865--873",
journal = "Drug and Alcohol Review",
issn = "0959-5236",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "7",

}

Modelling opportunity : An examination of quadratic effects of adolescent Venezuelan substance use. / Croff, Julie; Washburn, Isaac J.; Cox, Ronald B.; Liu, Chao.

In: Drug and Alcohol Review, Vol. 37, No. 7, 01.11.2018, p. 865-873.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Modelling opportunity

T2 - An examination of quadratic effects of adolescent Venezuelan substance use

AU - Croff, Julie

AU - Washburn, Isaac J.

AU - Cox, Ronald B.

AU - Liu, Chao

PY - 2018/11/1

Y1 - 2018/11/1

N2 - Introduction and Aims: Numerous studies have found a linear relationship between an exposure opportunity and age of first drug use. This study further tests this relationship by exploring whether a quadratic exposure opportunity best fits the data on age of first use and whether gender moderates this relationship. That is, is there a peak age in which the transition to use occurs for male compared to female adolescents?. Design and Methods: A sample of 1716 adolescents from 14 public and private schools, representative of two school districts in Caracas, Venezuela, was examined using a zero-inflated Poisson modelling approach to test for quadratic effects. A series of models were tested for each set of substances (alcohol, tobacco and other drugs) to assess whether a quadratic model has better predictive ability than linear models and to test whether gender moderates the quadratic relationship. Results: After controlling for common covariates, the quadratic models for alcohol indicated the peak age of transition from an exposure opportunity to use was 10-years of age in this Venezuelan sample. Gender did not moderate these models suggesting an important move toward gender equality in substance use. Discussion and Conclusions: Focused efforts on preventing exposure to alcohol use during these windows of rapid transition is likely to have the greatest impact on delaying age of onset, which will reduce the overall prevalence of alcohol related problems among adolescents.

AB - Introduction and Aims: Numerous studies have found a linear relationship between an exposure opportunity and age of first drug use. This study further tests this relationship by exploring whether a quadratic exposure opportunity best fits the data on age of first use and whether gender moderates this relationship. That is, is there a peak age in which the transition to use occurs for male compared to female adolescents?. Design and Methods: A sample of 1716 adolescents from 14 public and private schools, representative of two school districts in Caracas, Venezuela, was examined using a zero-inflated Poisson modelling approach to test for quadratic effects. A series of models were tested for each set of substances (alcohol, tobacco and other drugs) to assess whether a quadratic model has better predictive ability than linear models and to test whether gender moderates the quadratic relationship. Results: After controlling for common covariates, the quadratic models for alcohol indicated the peak age of transition from an exposure opportunity to use was 10-years of age in this Venezuelan sample. Gender did not moderate these models suggesting an important move toward gender equality in substance use. Discussion and Conclusions: Focused efforts on preventing exposure to alcohol use during these windows of rapid transition is likely to have the greatest impact on delaying age of onset, which will reduce the overall prevalence of alcohol related problems among adolescents.

KW - Venezuela

KW - adolescent

KW - alcohol consumption

KW - illicit drugs

KW - smoking

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85052633992&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1111/dar.12856

DO - 10.1111/dar.12856

M3 - Article

C2 - 30109744

AN - SCOPUS:85052633992

VL - 37

SP - 865

EP - 873

JO - Drug and Alcohol Review

JF - Drug and Alcohol Review

SN - 0959-5236

IS - 7

ER -