Abstract
The purpose of this study is to test the efficacy of three popular data-mining methods (artificial neural networks, decision trees, and rough sets) by comparing and contrasting them using gambling ballot data that were collected for tourism policy purposes. Sixty unique prediction models were built for this comparative study. The findings of the study suggest that the rough-set algorithm was the best forecasting tool (among the three) with a cross-validation predictive accuracy of 83.8%, followed by artificial neural networks (79.4%) and decision trees (76.7%). Although the political utility of this study remains to be established, there is sufficient evidence to indicate the efficacy of rough sets in fore-casting gaming ballot outcomes. Policy makers, politicians, investors, and public service administrators can potentially use the results of these contemporary forecasting methods in their decision-making processes. Implications of the findings are discussed within the context of data mining and gambling literature.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 313-332 |
Number of pages | 20 |
Journal | Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Research |
Volume | 30 |
Issue number | 3 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - 1 Jan 2006 |
Externally published | Yes |
Keywords
- artificial neural networks
- data mining
- decision trees
- forecasting ballot outcomes
- gambling ballots
- k-fold cross-validations
- political forecasting
- rough sets